South Africa, one of the major exporters of iron ore, managed to halt the decline of the past few years, during the course of 2023. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “2023 was a very positive year for global iron ore trade. In Jan-Dec 2023, global loadings of iron ore increased by +5.1% y-o-y to 1,631.9 mln tonnes, from 1,552.2 in the same period of 2022, based on AXS Marine vessel tracking data. The trend remained positive in JanFeb 2024, with loadings growing by +5.4% y-o-y to 255.7 mln tonnes. Exports from Australia actually declined by -4.6% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2024 to 137.0 mln tonnes. From Brazil, exports surged by +24.8% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2024 to 56.4 mln t. India also saw an increase of +48.5% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2024 to 11.1 mln t. From South Africa volumes increased +4.4% y-o-y at 9.0 mln t in Jan-Feb 2024. From Canada there was a +5.8% y-oy increase to 8.4 mln tonnes.

Source: Banchero Costa

According to the shipbroker, “demand has been again rebounding in Asia. Iron ore imports into China increased by +3.9% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2024 to 207.6 mln tonnes. Imports into Japan declined by -2.2% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2024 to 15.2 mln t. Volumes into South Korea increased by +8.2% y-o-y to 12.7 mln t. To Malaysia volumes were also up by +46.4% y-o-y to 3.8 mln t. Imports into the European Union declined sharply by -11.9% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2024 to 9.8 mln tonnes. To Bahrain, volumes were down -29.7% y-o-y to 1.4 mln t, to Oman by -5.1% y-o-y to 1.6 mln t, to Saudi Arabia imports increased +13.6% yo-y to 1.9 mln t”.

Banchero Costa said that “South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of iron ore in the world after Australia, Brazil, and Canada, with a 3.2% market share in 2023. Almost all iron ore cargoes exported by South Africa are loaded at the port of Saldanha Bay (93% in 2023), with 7% loaded at Richards Bay. The vast majority (83%) of volumes are loaded on Capesize vessels, with 16% on VLOC, and just 1% on Panamaxes or Supramaxes. The country’s exports in recent years have been held back by due to a lack of freight trains to carry minerals to ports. South Africa’s freight rail capacity has plummeted due to years of underinvestment, with a lack of locomotives, and theft of hundreds of kilometres of copper cable from rail lines, costing coal and iron ore exporters billions of rand in revenue”.

Source: Banchero Costa

It added that “South Africa’s seaborne iron ore exports last increased in 2020, when they grew by +3.8% y-o-y to 57.8 mln tonnes. Since then they have continued to decline. In 2021, iron ore exports from South Africa declined by -2.7% y-o-y to 56.2 mln t. In 2022, exports declined further by -6.4% y-o-y to 52.6 mln t. In 2023, volumes stabilized, declining by just -0.2% y-o-y to 52.5 mln t. Volumes in Jan-Feb 2024 actually rebounded, with 9.0 mln t, up +4.4% y-o-y from the same period last year. In terms of destinations for iron ore exports from South Africa, there has been a shift away from China. Mainland China is still by far the top iron ore importer from South Africa, with an overall 56.9% share of shipments from South Africa in 2023. Imports to China from South Africa declined by -5.2% y-o-y in 2023 to 29.9 mln t, from 31.5 mln t in 2022. This is also well below the 39.4 mln tonnes shipped to China in 2020. The second largest destination for South African ore is the European Union, with a 22.3% share. Shipments from South Africa to the EU declined by -3.9% y-o-y in 2023 to 11.7 mln t, from 12.2 mln t in 2022. Shipments to South Korea, on the other hand, increased by +14.5% yo-y in 2023 to 5.0 mln t. Volumes to Japan also increased by +38.3% y-o-y in 2023 to 3.4 mln t.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide